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Posted by Tony from ? ( on Wednesday, December 18, 2002 at 12:14PM :

Published on Tuesday, December 17, 2002 by the Los Angeles Times
Most Unconvinced on Iraq War
Two-thirds believe Bush has failed to make the case an
attack would be justified
by Maura Reynolds

WASHINGTON -- Despite a concerted effort by the Bush administration,
more than two-thirds of Americans believe the president has failed to make
the case that a war with Iraq is justified, according to a Los Angeles Times

The overwhelming majority of respondents -- 90% -- said they do not doubt
that Iraq is developing weapons of mass destruction. But in the absence of
new evidence from U.N. inspectors, 72% of respondents, including 60% of
Republicans, said the president has not provided enough evidence to justify
starting a war with Iraq.

The results underscore the importance of the outcome of U.N. arms
inspections underway in Iraq if the Bush administration expects to gain clear
public support for an attack.

"I'm not against [war] if it is necessary," said 59-year-old Kramer Smith, a
preacher, carpenter and registered Republican from Bloomfield, Iowa, one of
a number of respondents who explained their views in follow-up interviews.
"But I think we need to be pretty sure before we start pulling in the big guns. If
they could put their hands on evidence of real production of weapons of mass
destruction, then I would say go ahead and do it."

The poll also found that support for a possible war appears to be weakening,
with 58% saying they support a ground attack on Iraq. In an August Times
poll, 64% said they would support a ground attack. Last January, after
President Bush first denounced Saddam Hussein in his State of the Union
address, the Times and other polls found support for military action greater
than 70%.

"Still, almost three-quarters of Americans approve of the way George W.
Bush is handling the threat of terrorism in the country, and nearly three out of
five also approve of his handling of the country's affairs," said Susan Pinkus,
who directed The Times poll.

Traditionally, support is low before a president declares war, but increases
after troops are in the field.

"If he actually does go to war, I suspect people will swing behind him as they
did in the Gulf War," said John Mueller, an expert on war and public opinion at
Ohio State University. "But right now, there isn't all that much enthusiasm for
the war."

That lack of support may stem from the impression that the president has
failed to present enough hard evidence to prove that Hussein possesses
weapons of mass destruction and is prepared to use them. The
administration has spent much of the last three months trying to build a case
for war -- internationally at the United Nations, and domestically during the
president's frenetic campaigning in advance of midterm elections last month.

"How come they can show satellite photos of nuclear sites in Iran but they
can't find the same in Iraq?" asked Nancy Carolan, 52, a jewelry artist on the
Hawaiian island of Kauai. "I don't think they're justified, but they are just going
to do it anyway."

The poll also indicates that Americans do not agree with the president's
argument that any error or omission in the arms declaration Iraq sent to the
United Nations earlier this month is adequate to justify war.

Instead, 63% of respondents said war would be justified only if the United
Nations finds a pattern of serious violations by Iraq. Just 22% agreed with the
administration's position; 6% said it would depend on the nature of the
omissions; and 9% said they were not sure or declined to reply.

Almost six in 10 say it is unlikely that the U.N. inspectors will find Iraqi
weapons of mass destruction.

"I don't doubt that they do" have weapons of mass destruction, said
respondent Victoria Ellison, 57, a Democrat from Burbank. "But I want to see
proof. "

If U.N. inspections fail to turn up evidence of Iraqi weapons programs, almost
half of respondents said they would oppose war. Only 41% would favor war,
and 10% said they don't know whether they would favor or oppose.

The Times poll also suggests Americans are more informed about the
possibility of war with Iraq, with 84% saying they are following the news
closely -- up from 76% in August. Sixty-three percent of respondents in the
recent poll said they feel war is inevitable, 27% said war may or may not
occur, and 4% said they believed war would not occur.

Respondents also expressed concern that the president may not be getting
balanced information from his advisors. Fifty-one percent of respondents said
they believe Bush's advisors favor going to war; 20% said the advisors
present a balanced view; and 11% said the advisors are opposed to war.
Roughly a fifth said they are not sure whether Bush's advisors favor or oppose

If the United States should launch an attack, 68% of Americans want it to be
only with the support of the international community. Only 26% said they were
willing to support war if the United States acted alone.

"I am not opposed to doing something, but it would have to be in the right
circumstances," said Geoff George, a 20-year-old independent from Albany,
Ore. "I would probably be a little more supportive if the U.N. and the rest of the
world united and we all decided to do it together. But [if we act] as one nation,
I don't think there would ever be enough evidence for me."

However, at least theoretically, Americans agree with the administration's
argument that sometimes preemptive or preventive war is justified. Sixty-four
percent of respondents, including 49% of Democrats, believe the United
States should reserve the right to launch a preemptive attack against regimes
that threaten the country. Only 25% said they opposed such a policy, and 11%
said they did not have an opinion on the issue.

If the United States does go to war, the decision is likely to have serious
ramifications at home and abroad, respondents said. Sixty-seven percent
said war is likely to increase the threat of terrorist attacks in the United
States; 51% said they feel it would destabilize the Middle East; and 45% said
it will have a negative effect on the U.S. economy.

They are also concerned about the possibility of military casualties. Of those
who initially said they support a ground attack against Iraq, 18% said they
would do so only if no American soldiers are killed. However, support falls off
gradually as the theoretical death toll is raised, but 29% said they would
support war no matter what the cost in American lives.

Finally, in the wake of a war, the vast majority of Americans -- 70%, according
to the poll -- feel the country has an obligation to stay and rebuild Iraq.

The Times poll was conducted Dec. 12 to 15 and interviewed 1,305 adults
nationwide. Margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Copyright 2002 Los Angeles Times


-- Tony
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