(!) GRU: March 24, 2003


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Posted by andreas from dtm2-t7-1.mcbone.net (62.104.210.76) on Monday, March 24, 2003 at 5:54PM :

"The US made serious errors in their estimates of the Iraq's army strength
and combat readiness. The US military intelligence and the CIA failed to
uncover the true potential of the Iraqi forces and, in essence, misinformed
the top military and civilian leadership of the coalition member
countries."


------------------

GRU - Glavnoye Razvedyvatelnoye Upravleniye - Main Intelligence Directorate

War in Iraq - situation at An-Nasiriya (update)

March 24, 2003, 0800hrs MSK (GMT +3),

Moscow - As of morning (MSK, GMT +3)
March 24 the situation in Iraq can be characterized as quiet on all fronts.
Attacking coalition forces have settled into positional warfare, they are
exhausted, lost the attacking momentum and are in urgent need for fuel,
ammunition, repairs and reinforcements. The Iraqis are also busy regrouping
their forces, reinforcing the combat units and setting up new defense
lines.

Exceptionally heavy fighting continued for two days and nights near
An-Nasiriya. Both warring sides employed large numbers of tanks and
artillery. More than 20,000 troops of the US 3rd Motorized Infantry
Division, supported by 200 tanks, 600 other armored vehicles and 150
artillery pieces, were opposed by the Iraqi 3rd Army Corps consisting of up
to 40,000 troops, up to 250 tanks, more than 100 artillery, up to 100
mortars and 1000 rocket propelled grenade launchers (RPG) and anti-tank
guided missiles (ATGM). The two-day battle ended without any significant
results.

The Americans have failed in trying to use their momentum in capturing
An-Nasiriya and attempted to encircle the town from the west, where they
encountered strong layered Iraqi defenses and forced to withdraw. The Iraqi
forces used this opportunity to attack the US flanks with two brigades,
breaking the US combat orders and causing panic among the US troops. The US
command was forced to halt the advance of its forced toward An Najaf and
once again redirect several tank battalions to support the attacked units.
Nearly 6 hours was needed for the US aviation to stop the Iraqi attack and
restore combat order of the US forces.

During the past day the coalition aviation flew more than 2,000 close
support missions in this area [An-Nasiriya]. "We can only thank God for
having air dominance! said the commander of the US 15th Marines Exp. Corps
Col. Thomas Waldhauser in a private conversation with one of the CNN
reporters. Later the CNN journalist cited the Colonel in a phone
conversation with his editor. The conversation was intercepted.

According to the intercepted radio traffic, the US forces have sustained up
to 40 killed, up to 10 captured and up to 200 wounded during the fighting
near An-Nasiriya. There is confirmed information about one lost attack
helicopter and an unconfirmed report about a lost ground attack plane. The
US forces have also lost up to 40 armored vehicles, including no less than
10 tanks. Several intercepted reports by the US field commanders stated
that their troops are unable to advance due to their soldiers being
demoralized by the enemy's fierce resistance and high losses.

Four days of continuous advance exhausted the coalition forces, which now
have settled into defensive positions nearly on every front to rest and
regroup. As of this morning (MSK, GMT +3) the coalition forces are in
control of the western part of An-Nasiriya but have no foothold on the left
bank of Euphrates. The left bank of the river is controlled by the Iraqi
forces, which are conducting engineering works to reinforce their defenses.
A part of the Iraqi forces have been deployed to strengthen the defense of
An-Najaf, where they expect the next coalition attack.

Around 2300hrs (MSK, GMT +3) March 23 a British platoon was ambushed by
Iraqi Special Forces unit near Basra. Following a powerful initial
artillery barrage the Iraqis engaged the British in close combat and
destroyed several armored vehicles. After the Iraqis withdrew the British
commander reported up to 8 killed, two missing and more than 30 wounded
British soldiers. Thus over the 30% of the unit's troops have been disabled
in the attack. Reinforcements and medevac helicopters have been dispatched
by the coalition to the scene of the attack.

During the past day there has been a sharp increase in combat activity in
the coalition's rearguard.

Reports have been intercepted showing at least 5 attacks on the coalition
military convoys, 8 vehicles destroyed by landmines and 2 ambushes. Iraqi
special operation units are mining the roads, setting up ambushes and
conduct search and reconnaissance operations. The coalition forces have
been ordered to halt the movement of convoys during dark hours and to
provide each convoy with combat escort units and air cover.

The situation around the borderline town of Umm Qasr (population 1,500)
still remains unclear. Radio intercepts and satellite images show that the
town was under constant bombardment throughout out the night. The morning
photos indicate its complete destruction. This shows that the coalition
command, fed up with the Iraqi's stubborn resistance, ordered the complete
destruction of the town using aviation and artillery. However, according to
reports by the British troops ordered to "clean up" Umm Qasr the town still
contains many pockets of resistance. The overall coalition losses at Umm
Qasr during the past four days amounted to up to 40 killed and up to 200
wounded. Currently it is impossible to estimate the Iraqi losses at Umm
Qasr. As of yesterday's morning the Umm Qasr garrison consisted of 1600
troops.

The units of the British marine infantry have failed to establish control
over the strategically important Fao peninsula. After yesterday's
counterattack by the Iraqis the British forces have been thrown back some 3
to 5 kilometers and were forced into defensive positions. Intercepted
radio communications indicate that today the British command will attempt
to regain the lost ground after spending the night reinforcing their units
on Fao with two additional marine infantry battalions. The overall British
losses on the Fao peninsula during the past four days of fighting include
up to 15 killed and up to 100 wounded. The Iraqis lost here up to 100
killed and around 100 captured.

A heated exchange of fire continues near Basra. The coalition units
hesitate to enter the city and limit their actions to constant artillery
and aviation bombardment of Basra. So far the coalition forces have failed
to completely surround the city and to cut off the defending Iraqi garrison
from the main Iraqi forces.

The US troops continue landing in northern Iraqi territories controlled by
the Kurds. It is expected that as early as tomorrow morning these forces
supported by the Kurdish units will make an attempt to capture the town of
Kirkuk.

Aerial strikes against Iraq continued throughout the night. A total of up
to 1,500 combat flights were carried out by the coalition aviation.
Additionally, B-52 bombers launched more than 100 cruise missiles from the
so-called "Turkish corridor". Some 150 more cruise missiles have been
launched by the US and British naval forces.

Intercepted radio traffic indicates another lost coalition plane this
morning. There was a confirmed loss of a "Predator" unmanned aerial
reconnaissance aircraft.

Any further advances by the coalition within the next 8-12 hours are
unlikely. The coalition command in Qatar has been in meeting since the
early morning and is expected to come up with significant changes to the
overall operational plan. According to most experts the coalition command
made a most serious strategic error by starting the ground phase of the
operation nearly at the very start of the war. The Americans have violated
their own doctrine where the ground phases of a military operation coincide
in time with the destruction of the enemy from the air.

The US made serious errors in their estimates of the Iraq's army strength
and combat readiness. The US military intelligence and the CIA failed to
uncover the true potential of the Iraqi forces and, in essence, misinformed
the top military and civilian leadership of the coalition member countries.




-- andreas
-- signature .



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