Re: hm....

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Posted by Azhi from ( on Wednesday, September 24, 2003 at 11:19PM :

In Reply to: Re: hm.... posted by Sadie from D007121.N1.Vanderbilt.Edu ( on Wednesday, September 24, 2003 at 10:25PM :

: Isn't Turkey a NATO ally?

: Here's what I think may happen: if the Kurds push for an autonomous state, the U.S. government will strengthen its bond with the Turkish government, Turkey will take over northern Iraq (because of the "Kurdish threat"), the oil revenue from that region will boost the Turkish economy, & the EU will accept Turkey as a member state, because Turkey will be economically strong. HOWEVER, if the Kurds do NOT push for an autonomous state, but make strong bonds with Iraqi neighbors to the south, cementing a federation between northern, central, & southern territories, then Turkey will have no excuse to take over northern Iraq, & the Kurds will retain local control over their territory.

A few points:

1. NATO is almost dead. After the collapse of the USSR, NATO has not been of much use to the US. Look for two camps to be formed: an EU camp and a US camp. The battle lines have already been drawn. Turkey has to choose a side very soon and it seem to me that she already has chosen the EU (but that may change!)

2. Why would the US give the oil that she already possesses, in Iraq, to Turkey? That’s billions of dollars a year!

3. The US needs “loyal” strategic allies in the Middle East (beside Israel). Disfranchised people make perfect allies once helped especially if surrounded by hostile forces (Turkey, Iran, and Syria). Is there any other group of people in the Middle East more disfranchised than the Kurds? The US can kill many (not just two) bird with one stone. By helping the Kurds in Iraq it can use the Kurds in Iran and Syria (and Turkey if she goes through with her new alliance with the EU) to destabilize those countries.

Remember it’s all about the GREEN!

-- Azhi
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