The Inside Assyria Discussion Forum #5

=> Re: Tehran Threatens to use Nuclear weapons on itself...

Re: Tehran Threatens to use Nuclear weapons on itself...
Posted by Arrow (Guest) - Sunday, November 20 2011, 20:13:46 (UTC)
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>I do not know why you said the above two sentences. I would appreciate it if you could explain.

...the law of probability is a is probable, not certain.

So? Did I say anything against prediction itself? Or against using the past as a tool for prediction? And when did I talk about certainty?

it's possible that pigs fly on Mars...but it isn't very likely. But how do we reach that determination? Because we know of no flying pigs anywhere and have no reason to believe they do so on Mars, or even exist on Mars...all our past experience tells us that no such thing is probable...we base that on past experience.

There was a time when it was widely believed, due to observation, that all swans are white until one day explorers found black ones in Australia.... Until recently all experiments showed that nothing can travel faster than the speed of light and this was treated as an absolute fact. Now they found out that neutrons actually do.

Determination? From past experience you reach the 100%? And are you saying that pigs flying on mars are as improbable as a nuclear warfare?

You mean they searched every planet in the galaxy and then came to a conclusion that there are no pigs on mars? You reach a determination only when you go to mars and see for yourself. Maybe there's life on a distant planet somewhere where pigs have evolved to fly! Who knows!

...the past tells me that when one country has a nuclear bomb, like the United States did in 1945, it will use it....I also learn that when the Soviets and Chinese got them, we dropped none and neither did they...

Do you then reach a determination that in the future those countries will not nuke each other because they haven't done so in the past? Do you reach a determination that a country will never in the future default on loans because it has never done so in the past?

You know what? This is going forever...


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