|Re: Tehran Threatens to use Nuclear weapons on itself...|
- Sunday, November 20 2011, 22:10:53 (UTC)|
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> >I do not know why you said the above two sentences. I would appreciate it if you could explain.
> ...the law of probability is a prediction....it is probable, not certain.
>So? Did I say anything against prediction itself? Or against using the past as a tool for prediction? And when did I talk about certainty?
...yes, you said it was wrong to base the probable course of future events from the past...I said there is a good likelihood that if everyone has those bombs, no one will start a fight, because no one has so far(except for the US when it had the only ones)...as long as only some countries have them, those who don;t are in for trouble, as also witnessed by recent events...no one dares attack a nuclear power, but they will gang up on those who don;t have them, whenever they feel like it.
> it's possible that pigs fly on Mars...but it isn't very likely. But how do we reach that determination? Because we know of no flying pigs anywhere and have no reason to believe they do so on Mars, or even exist on Mars...all our past experience tells us that no such thing is probable...we base that on past experience.
>There was a time when it was widely believed, due to observation, that all swans are white until one day explorers found black ones in Australia.... Until recently all experiments showed that nothing can travel faster than the speed of light and this was treated as an absolute fact. Now they found out that neutrons actually do.
....and they might find out that when everyone has nuclear weapons everyone uses them...if you don;t like those odds, thank the US and the West...not Iran. Then again they might find out that no one will, which I believe is more likely...I don;t know and you don;t know...but what we think doesn't matter...it's too late for that....it's past time for Iran and others to get those weapons, so there can be peace....crazy ain't it?
>Determination? From past experience you reach the 100%? And are you saying that pigs flying on mars are as improbable as a nuclear warfare?
...why not? Both could exist.
>You mean they searched every planet in the galaxy and then came to a conclusion that there are no pigs on mars? You reach a determination only when you go to mars and see for yourself. Maybe there's life on a distant planet somewhere where pigs have evolved to fly! Who knows!
...and it is the obligation of those making such claims to prove it...not mine to prove that they DON'T fly on Mars...I have history on my side, I can "prove" that so far nuclear powers don;t attack each other...you can't prove that they would...you just fear it...well, the time to have dealt with your fears was before the US let the cat out of the bag...it wasn't your fault, personally, and it certainly wasn't the fault of the Iranians....
> ...the past tells me that when one country has a nuclear bomb, like the United States did in 1945, it will use it....I also learn that when the Soviets and Chinese got them, we dropped none and neither did they...
>Do you then reach a determination that in the future those countries will not nuke each other because they haven't done so in the past? Do you reach a determination that a country will never in the future default on loans because it has never done so in the past?
...of course not...everyone can do everything, which is exactly why Iran wants nuclear weapons: because there's a good chance they'll use another pretext to bomb them into the dark ages...they've seen it happen to their neighbors...so based on what a country MIGHT do...Iran wants to better its odds of survival...right now Iran doesn;t care what you are afraid of...only what they are afraid of....the US has nothing to fear from Iran...it's the other way around.
>You know what? This is going forever...
...right. You and I have no impact on this situation...just as the Iranians have none...except to defend themselves as best they can. So build a bomb shelter.
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