Posted by Azhi from 253.16.252.64.snet.net (126.96.36.199) on Wednesday, September 24, 2003 at 1:14PM :
In Reply to: Re: Shlamalukh Azhi posted by Sadie from ? (188.8.131.52) on Wednesday, September 24, 2003 at 10:39AM :
: : Hi Sadie;
: : I will try to combine the answers to both of you posts in this reply.
: : There is already a pipeline through Turkey from which Turkey is receiving a commission (per liter?). This was the main reason that the Turks got really made last months when the US/Israel announced a feasibility study to build a pipeline from Kerkuk to Israel (http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/030826/2003082607.html). I can only guess that this was a political maneuver by the US to tell Turkey that even if they are the “Turkey” laying the golden egg, they are still expendable.
: xxx Well, how were Kurds able to shunt oil to Israel? The most direct way would be a pipeline or road (for trucks) through Syria or Jordan, right? Would Syria or Jordan allow such a thing to happen? Esp. since that oil would mean more Palestinian blood? Maybe those governments don't really care about the Palestinians, but the masses do...
: : Turkey has bet the house on EU. In the past two years the Turkish government has aligned its policies more toward the EU distancing itself from the US. This manifested itself boldly on March 1st when the Turkish Parliament refused the US Military’s request for access to northern Iraq. Whether or not Turkey will follow through with the change of ally, I do not know. They may simply take a U-turn and look towards the US once again.
: xxx If Turkey does that - become a stronger ally of the U.S. government - then perhaps Kurdish territory will then be OK for Turkey to take over, in the eyes of the U.S. government.
: : Turkey needs to get into Europe and Europe needs young muscle due to its aging population. I do not think that EU will accept Turkey anytime soon due to the huge economic disparity between them. I should remind you that becoming a member of EU entitles the Turks to freedom of movement and minimum wage in the EU countries. I guess the EU cannot handle that at the moment. So, I think that EU will wait till Turkey is in a better shape economically (will that ever happen?).
: xxx In the meantime, Turkey is courting both EU & U.S. interests.... It's advantageous for Turkey to be like this....
: : Turkey taking over northern Iraq: Iraq is the grand prize that US will fight to keep. Turkey knows that very well. We know that over 90% of Turkish military hardware is American made and serviced. A few months of sanctions (no spare parts for tanks, fighter jest,…) renders the Turkish military to resort to primitive and traditional tactics. I speak of experience, I remember when I was in the Iranian army our munitions was rationed very tightly. We practically had no heavy weapons and had to fight with rifles. The only thing that stopped the Iraqi Army was waves and waves of human wall. Switching from a US-based military hardware to a European one is a very long and expensive process. The Turks cannot expect to order 2000 German tanks and 200 French fighter jets and have UPS deliver them the next day. These orders are taken years in advance. It took Iran over 20 years to switch form its US-based military hardware. Another important point is that US army may seem powerless against the guerillas in Iraq, but when it comes to a traditionally structured army such as Turkey’s, the are well trained. Once you can locate the “enemy’s” concentration all it takes is concentrated carpet bombing, a technique that the US Air Force practiced and perfected in South of Iraq. So, no chance of Turkey entering northern Iraq unless US wants her to. Furthermore, today Richard Pearle said that sending more troop, including Turkish, to Iraq would be a great mistake. Few things in life scare me and that guy is one of them. He is calculating and cold.
: xxx I don't think that the U.S. can do anything like that to Turkey, though. The U.S. will install/has installed people in the Iraqi government who will know how to negotiate deals for the U.S. government's favorite corporations (not all U.S. corporations are benefitting from this attack). You're right: Iraq is the grand prize, but I don't see how the U.S. can get away with meaningless sanctions against the Turkish government, esp. if the EU will be trading with that government. Turkey is too close to Europe, geographically, for the EU to be comfortable with any sort of future war there, right now, anyway. Besides, the U.S. government, in attacking Iraq, has estranged itself from various EU governments. Technically, I think that if Turkey was attacked, it would completely drain the U.S. of soldiers, money, & essentially all of its power. I think that the U.S. government is too weak to openly take on Turkey like it did with Iraq, too. Even if Turkey goes through a military transition, like you were saying happened in Iran, I don't think it's necessary.... Think of it through a businessman's perspective (like the U.S. government does). The U.S. government will go with whoever offers the best deal the fastest. Go with the stronger power, which conveniently has a lot of water-front property for shipping, or furnish the Kurds with weapons to fight a long battle with Turkey, which may not be won, who then turn around & have to fight for access to water....
: : Sadie, I can hardly call speaking one’s mother language “better treatment”. That country was not based on a voluntary union the very first day. Did you know that many of the RAF’s aces during WWI attributed their success and skills to the practice they got killing rebellious Kurds in Iraq?
: xxx I didn't know that about the RAF. Is it true that Kurds have let Israeli spies into northern Iraq since the 1970's? If that is true, then why were Israeli spies going there?
: : The old US policy toward Iran and Iraq was of “dual” containment. As long as Iran and Iraq were at each others throat they would be rendered harmless. Iran could not import its so-called revolution and Iraq could not attack Kuwait and the Saudis. We should not forget that the USSR had dealings with Saddam and US was trying to pull him toward the West by all means. With the fall of the USSR, the US could deal with practically anything. So, one should ask, now that there is no threat of the USSR, why a missile defense shield? What do you think?
: xxx The missile defense shield is a complete sham - hardly a single component works in it. It's just another excuse to waste American tax dollars by giving to the defense industry. It's all a racket: http://www.pbs.org/now/printable/transcript_spinney_print.html
: I know someone very well who worked on a part of that missile defense program. This person quit their job because the missiles weren't even close to hitting their mark, while their boss was selling those missiles off to the government. People were faking data in that company (which went under after my friend called the government hotline, after they quit) just to sell crappy products to the government at high prices. This happens all over the defense industry. So, this missile defense shield is another big fat bluff on the part of the U.S. government. The only real weapons the U.S. government has are its man-power (which is entirely based on what the masses will fall for), good airplanes & ships, & powerful missiles (which have to be launched by plane or ship to accurately hit their marks). See, the U.S. military still uses the brute force approach.
: : You say that you don’t trust the US. Well, US is doing what all the empires before her have done. From Mongolian Empire to the Assyrian, the Median, the Persian, the Roman,…they all have exploited the weak with no regard. Looking at history one may see that the method may have changed but the underling current has remained the same. Sometimes I ask myself “do we ever evolve beyond this?”
: xxx I ask the same question, too....
: : The Council: I don’t know much about the non-Kurds and the Kurds I know: Jelal and Mesud are running the Kurdish affairs like a family business, crooked they are. But then again can you show me a politician who is not a crook. I think of politics as the art of deception. One who can lie the best makes the best politician. Why do you think that Utopia has been a dream for such a long time?
: xxx Good question! Utopia sells, perpetual warfare didn't sell until now....
: : Azhi
: : PS I may take your offer about Nashville!
: xxx Sure, anytime! : )
I am not saying that the US will attack Turkey. You asked if I thought Turkey would invade northern Iraq. I said no and gave the reasons why I thought that would not happen.
The US went for the quick fix in the 1991 Gulf war; it was strategically a mistake which is being corrected now. The US will not make the same mistake twice. The hawks in Washington will not go for a short-term fix; they will opt for a long-term strategic “presence” in the Middle East. By helping the Kurds, the US is actually buying long-term servants!
I do not know about the Israeli spies, could not confirm or deny.
I don’t think the missile defense shield is being marketed at the moment. It is still in its early developmental stages and experts predict that a practical system could be deployed in 10 years, not earlier.
If the US is relaying on brute force and its men, how did a force of 180,000 practically humiliated the 400,000 strong Iraqi? The US army is becoming more and more like a war video game with UAV’s and smart bombs. A while ago I use to work on a project funded by DARPA and got a small glimpse (unclassified information) into the future of the defense industry. It is scary.
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