Posted by Azhi from 253.16.252.64.snet.net (18.104.22.168) on Wednesday, September 24, 2003 at 2:59AM :
In Reply to: Re: Shlamalukh Azhi posted by Sadie from D006022.N1.Vanderbilt.Edu (22.214.171.124) on Tuesday, September 23, 2003 at 10:28PM :
: : You mentioned about the resistance in Iraq. The main resistance is happening in the so-called Sunni Triangle. Washington has a back plan which has been advocated by many in the media like, if I recall currency, Ralph Peters (a retired army intelligent officer who writes for NY Times): dividing Iraq into three countries, Kurdistan in the north, A Sunni part in the middle and the Shai in the south. This will practically leave the Sunni penniless and isolated hence rendering them harmless.
: xxx Well, splitting Iraq up like that is problematic because of the oil - how will it flow so readily through pipes through Turkey, Syria, Iran, or a Sunni state if Kurds are making so much money off of it? There's no direct access to a port for the Kurds to use. If they put a pipeline through Turkey, Turkey may then try to take over Kurdistan or claim the oil that flows through it or the Sunnis will sabotage the pipeline, if it cuts through their territory.... See, there's a physical dimension to this whole thing....
: xxx You know, I think Iraq probably sits on the largest amount of oil in the world, not the second largest. There's tons of land to drill into, yet.... & my friend who used to work for the defense industry says that Iraq sits on the largest oil deposits in the world.
I will try to combine the answers to both of you posts in this reply.
There is already a pipeline through Turkey from which Turkey is receiving a commission (per liter?). This was the main reason that the Turks got really made last months when the US/Israel announced a feasibility study to build a pipeline from Kerkuk to Israel (http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/030826/2003082607.html). I can only guess that this was a political maneuver by the US to tell Turkey that even if they are the “Turkey” laying the golden egg, they are still expendable.
Turkey has bet the house on EU. In the past two years the Turkish government has aligned its policies more toward the EU distancing itself from the US. This manifested itself boldly on March 1st when the Turkish Parliament refused the US Military’s request for access to northern Iraq. Whether or not Turkey will follow through with the change of ally, I do not know. They may simply take a U-turn and look towards the US once again.
Turkey needs to get into Europe and Europe needs young muscle due to its aging population. I do not think that EU will accept Turkey anytime soon due to the huge economic disparity between them. I should remind you that becoming a member of EU entitles the Turks to freedom of movement and minimum wage in the EU countries. I guess the EU cannot handle that at the moment. So, I think that EU will wait till Turkey is in a better shape economically (will that ever happen?).
Turkey taking over northern Iraq: Iraq is the grand prize that US will fight to keep. Turkey knows that very well. We know that over 90% of Turkish military hardware is American made and serviced. A few months of sanctions (no spare parts for tanks, fighter jest,…) renders the Turkish military to resort to primitive and traditional tactics. I speak of experience, I remember when I was in the Iranian army our munitions was rationed very tightly. We practically had no heavy weapons and had to fight with rifles. The only thing that stopped the Iraqi Army was waves and waves of human wall. Switching from a US-based military hardware to a European one is a very long and expensive process. The Turks cannot expect to order 2000 German tanks and 200 French fighter jets and have UPS deliver them the next day. These orders are taken years in advance. It took Iran over 20 years to switch form its US-based military hardware. Another important point is that US army may seem powerless against the guerillas in Iraq, but when it comes to a traditionally structured army such as Turkey’s, the are well trained. Once you can locate the “enemy’s” concentration all it takes is concentrated carpet bombing, a technique that the US Air Force practiced and perfected in South of Iraq. So, no chance of Turkey entering northern Iraq unless US wants her to. Furthermore, today Richard Pearle said that sending more troop, including Turkish, to Iraq would be a great mistake. Few things in life scare me and that guy is one of them. He is calculating and cold.
Sadie, I can hardly call speaking one’s mother language “better treatment”. That country was not based on a voluntary union the very first day. Did you know that many of the RAF’s aces during WWI attributed their success and skills to the practice they got killing rebellious Kurds in Iraq?
The old US policy toward Iran and Iraq was of “dual” containment. As long as Iran and Iraq were at each others throat they would be rendered harmless. Iran could not import its so-called revolution and Iraq could not attack Kuwait and the Saudis. We should not forget that the USSR had dealings with Saddam and US was trying to pull him toward the West by all means. With the fall of the USSR, the US could deal with practically anything. So, one should ask, now that there is no threat of the USSR, why a missile defense shield? What do you think?
You say that you don’t trust the US. Well, US is doing what all the empires before her have done. From Mongolian Empire to the Assyrian, the Median, the Persian, the Roman,…they all have exploited the weak with no regard. Looking at history one may see that the method may have changed but the underling current has remained the same. Sometimes I ask myself “do we ever evolve beyond this?”
The Council: I don’t know much about the non-Kurds and the Kurds I know: Jelal and Mesud are running the Kurdish affairs like a family business, crooked they are. But then again can you show me a politician who is not a crook. I think of politics as the art of deception. One who can lie the best makes the best politician. Why do you think that Utopia has been a dream for such a long time?
PS I may take your offer about Nashville!
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